NewPage To Curtail Output Of Lightweight Coated Groundwood

I heard something about them having a week long shut-down around Thanksgiving and another at Christmas-time...

But yet we have no reason to be concerned of a closure.... I'm not buying it.

Big announcement coming from Newpage this afternoon in regards to it's Rumford mill.

EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE Well, leave us hanging................

There is nothing on their web site as of yet. Feel free to check it at your leisure....

http://ir.newpagecorp.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=193188&p=irol-news&nyo=0

Don't forget to copy and paste because we all know that clicking on a link sends information directly to the CIA and eventually will lead to the distruction of the free world.

Here are some words of encouragement from the previous press release...

Net loss was $(61) million in the third quarter of 2008 compared to net income of $16 million in the third quarter of 2007.

“The advertising markets that consume our coated paper products are in a significant retrenchment caused by a declining and uncertain retail and business climate,” said Mark A. Suwyn, NewPage chairman and chief executive officer. “Our customers, printers, magazine and book publishers, and catalogers, are dealing with significant reductions in their businesses and higher costs that, in turn, reduced demand for coated paper roughly 19% year over year. We have taken many steps to ensure we are making only what our customers need and not over-supplying the market. To deal with the lower demand, we’ve taken market-related downtime, including a 40,000 ton reduction we announced yesterday, shut down several paper machines, reduced our capital spending rate, maintained our focus on driving costs down across the board and aggressively moved forward on our integration plans with the mills we bought late last year.”

... but yet, our town leaders fail to plan for bad news, incredible!

... but yet, our town leaders fail to plan for bad news, incredible!

The town leaders could have been making plans while the mill was still going strong. Ten years ago (or more), the leaders could have been looking for ways to promote tourism in the area. Maybe have another industry, such as tourism, established in the area. That way, if the mill does close, there is something else to fall back on. Instead of scrambling for other industries AFTER the mill closes. Mr. Saisi is correct, planning for the future is needed. Maybe, however, it could be discussed with possible mill closure as a possible reality, not the doom-and-gloom approach.

In TRR aticle, or pictorial, about four-wheeling (odd as her thinking is aboout four-wheeling being quiet and peaceful), (I do own a couple four-wheelers) promoting outdorrs activities is a step in the right direction. Black Mountain has skiing, downhill and crosscountry. There are snowmobile trails, and to a lesser extent, ATV trails. Hunting, fishing, hiking, camping are all activities that could be promoted. Promote the heritage af the area, such as the pennacook diplay at the bottom of Falls Hill.

Think not only of Rumford, either. Think of all of Northern Oxford County. The River Valley.

New Page is laying off appx. 270 people for 30 days. Dec 8-Jan8(?)
They are shutting down #15, Groundwood and Long log.

I grew up with the "mill" running pretty much everybody's life. Sometimes directly, and often indirectly.

It wasn't always a bad thing, since it kept money flowing into the families and into the the town

. But how many Christmases, and other holidays were absent cherished family members because of the "shifts"?

During the "strike", how many families were torn apart by perceived allegiances to one side or another?

I have relatives who to this day don't speak to one another over these things.

Whether you call it Oxford, Boise, New Page, or whatever ... it's a corporation. The Hugh Chisolm paternalist days are long over.

People in town still feel, understandably, an almost familial connection with the mill. The reverse is no longer true.

For generations, the mill has run Rumford , for better or worse.

They could shut down completely tomorrow and not feel they owe anyone a thing.

A lot of people have been giving the " what if" scenario, but nobody really believes it.

While I hope that New Page does not close their operation in Rumford, I hope that people are prepared for that likelihood and don't keep their heads in the sand.

I have been in touch with town leaders to encourage that contingency planning become a priority. Hopefully, it will be addressed soon.

Kevin -

You continue to harp on this topic. I understand your concern, but realistically, what do you really expect from "contingency planning"?

It is very difficult to truly define what is going to happen. If the mill closes, obviously the impact is huge. But there is nothing that can realistically be done by the town beforehand to change this.

What are you proposing?

I propose that a group collect the data associated with various levels of shut-down/closure and assess the fiscal impact upon our community. Many of the people working in the mill live outside of our economic community. If #15 is closed, will that have more of an impact than an older machiene? Once we have assessed the impact of salaries and tax revenue loss, we than look at the next level which includes support businesses including loggers, engineering firms, and construction (there used to be a number of construction workers in the mill, how many are there now??). After the support businesses, we look at the financial impact to our retail businesses. A full blown impact study would provide us with clues as to what we need to be doing to abate the inpact of a shutdown. Losing wood-fiber jobs and replacing them with call center jobs would not be an effective decision. Economic Development looks different when you are in survival mode as opposed to growth mode.

Once we have assessed the financial impact upon the tax revenues, it is time to look at priorities in terms of potential cuts. Nothing kills a town faster than having tax increases on top of an economic downturn, unless the revenues are going toward stimulating the economy and creating jobs (such as Mr. Obama's plan). With a full mill shutdown, we would likely have to make drastic cuts in every department. The sacred cows would need to be slaughtered, and our municipal government cut in half. Aside from losing millions of dollars in taxable property, we would also lose population, with houses being turned over to the bank, or taken by the town for lack of payment. Reduced revenue means reduced services. This means our town offices would likely employ no more than five people (Treasurer, Tax Collector, Town Manager, Assessor, and maybe a secretary). Our Police Department would likely need to be reduced to one officer per shift with backup from Mexico and the Sherriff's Department. The Fire Department would likely be reduced to one person per shift with the remainder being call force. The Public Works would be reduced as well. Special projects would have to be scrapped. The Park Commission would likely be reduced to one groundskeeper (a seasonal part-time position at minimum wage), or absorbed into the Public Works duties.

The positive side of a full mill shut down (yes, there are positives in the negative) is that our air and water would be cleaner. This would assist in making our area more attractive to recreational tourists. Unfortunately, this would take time, and any efforts would not offset the millions of dollars in revenue to the town.

Another positive is that a full shut down would take months in clean-up of hazardous chemicles. If the buildings were levelled, as was done in Berlin, NH, that work would take time and employ some people as well.

Of course, a partial shut down/closure would have less impact, but we cannot rely upon a titrated withdrawal by New Page. Please remember that New Page has closed a mill in Kimberly, WI with 30 days notice. It all started with a "temporary" shutdown due to market conditions. If that were to happen here, what would you want our town leaders to do? Berlin, NH found out the hard way that waiting until you get the notice is not a wise move.

(I could type more, but is is late, and I need my "beauty sleep" )

Kevin ... I don't think you've defined the data you want to collect precisely enough. Having the study defined as looking for the general impact of one thing or another would make the study hard to conduct and the results dubious. Have another run at it and see if you can narrow down what info you'd seek and how you'd get it.

A couple of thoughts: property taxes aren't based on operations, but on assets. The machines may not be functioning, but the taxes are due on them nonetheless. The mill is paying progressively less on property taxes anyway due to depreciation. The point is that the closing of one or more functions wouldn't create a sudden drop in property tax revenues. That would happen if and when the mill actually removed the machines and the time required to do that would stretch out the time that property tax revenues would drop.

Much of the info you seek would require the cooperation of the mill management to find. I am not sure you would receive that cooperation.

Berlin, NH is not a ghost town by any means. It's doing relatively well. One factor was that when the mills went down, the state and federal governments suddenly made an effort to help. They are not helping much in Rumford at the moment, but they'd be here if a crisis situation developed.

Finally, the value of real estate in the smell zone around the mill would double once that smell were gone.

I don't think it matters in terms of numbers what will happen if the mill closes. We can already envision how it will change the economic situation in Rumford. Having numbers and statistics don't change that. There isn't much we can do except continue with the economic development efforts that will make our community less dependent on the status of the mill. It would be a nice thought that we could do something to maintain the property values if the mill did close down. Most who live here and work at the mill would need to consider relocation. It would be hard to relocate when you couldn't sell your property for enough to pay off your mortgage. I still think we need to find a way to cash in on the tourists passing through. Even if it is something "hokey" like Santa's Village or Storyland...

Phil Blampied wrote:Kevin ... I don't think you've defined the data you want to collect precisely enough. Having the study defined as looking for the general impact of one thing or another would make the study hard to conduct and the results dubious. Have another run at it and see if you can narrow down what info you'd seek and how you'd get it.

A couple of thoughts: property taxes aren't based on operations, but on assets. The machines may not be functioning, but the taxes are due on them nonetheless. The mill is paying progressively less on property taxes anyway due to depreciation. The point is that the closing of one or more functions wouldn't create a sudden drop in property tax revenues. That would happen if and when the mill actually removed the machines and the time required to do that would stretch out the time that property tax revenues would drop.

Much of the info you seek would require the cooperation of the mill management to find. I am not sure you would receive that cooperation.

Berlin, NH is not a ghost town by any means. It's doing relatively well. One factor was that when the mills went down, the state and federal governments suddenly made an effort to help. They are not helping much in Rumford at the moment, but they'd be here if a crisis situation developed.

Finally, the value of real estate in the smell zone around the mill would double once that smell were gone.

Phil,
I wasn't putting together a detailed proposal, I was identifying the types of actions that I belive would be wise. I don't have the time to explain macro and microeconomics as well as strategic planning. Give me a break, I am not teaching a college course here.

I really don't want to get into another battle. I have expressed my opinions, take from it what you feel is important, and leave the rest. I am done posting to this thread.

Phil, I don't want to appear argumentative, but I have seen no substantive support from the state or federal governments in the Maine towns that have lost mills in the past few years. Sure, they have sent in teams to evaluate the effects on locals, but other than the expected unemployment benefits and token job placement efforts, there has been little assistance to the displaced workers. And were it not for the federal prison being constructed in Berlin, there would be no significant employment there.

Nobody is "battling" you Kevin, but you can take your ball and run home if you wish. I've got a degree in Economics, so you don't have to explain that subject matter to me. I'm a college instructor, also.

What you are missing is that when one designs a contingency plan, it is because they can actually take actions dependent upon a known factor. Regardless of what happens, Rumford doesn't have a lot of actions to do, except to cut services should tax revenues decline.

Beyond that, it would be to beg to the state and federal government for a bailout.

Perhaps I'm not understanding what level of detail you are proposing. A simple analysis based upon industry multiplier effects would provide adaquate information.

Let's be honest. If the mill says "bye-bye", the area is in for some rough times. Would there be any willing buyers for the mill if NewPage decides to go? I don't know. If not, should it be torn down, the contaminated earth be cleaned, and a new approach taken? I don't know. Will another wood products industry (like a pellet manufacturer) now want to locate in the area? I don't know.

My point, Kevin, is that it's too early for a plan. Too many scenarios are possible. And nothing is going to happen quickly, no matter what you have on a piece of paper.

Phil - some decent points, but I don't agree about real estate. Losing the smell would be nice, but without jobs, what is going to cause the demand for them to increase? Perhaps in the long term, but I call long-term 10 years out or so.

Let's hope the fellows get back to work in early January and stay there so this discussion is moot.

the one really great thing that rumford has going for itself is it's scenic beauty, which has always been marred by the mill. Driving in on route 2 you are greeted by its ugliness, and no attempts were ever made to diminish it. People in town got used to it, and still talked about their "beautiful little valley town" but visitors were put off by this sprawling smelly site before they could even see any of the town's actual charm.

Granted, the mill has employed most of the town, and even I don't want to see it close, but, if it should, and it's remains removed, the town would surely look a whole lot more like it THINKS it looks.

The real estate will get driven by the market surrounding Rumford. All liveable houses east of here are $100k or more, all liveable houses west of here are $100k or more. People working at UMaine Farmington or Sunday River will come to Rumford once the negative impacts of the mill are gone because they can get a nice house for half of what they pay near their jobs.

In Berlin, money has come in floods from the feds. One factor is an ace guy working for their planning department who has worked with their Congressional delegation and gotten many earmarks. But apart from government money ... Take the paper making away and the mill still has huge value as a biomass energy generator and as a source of chips and sawdust, which can be sold for energy or wood pellets. Also, that bend in the river is lovely for a residential development once the dirt is cleaned up.

And cleaning up the dirt is paydirt, too. There is a program called "Brownfields", which sends hundreds of thousands of federal dollars to various areas including Berlin. Some of the disposed material even has aftermarket value, as has been discovered with buried bark, now being dug up and used for mulch!

Some big "if's" on that scenario, Phil. Mainely depending upon gas prices. But you're right, Rumford/Mexico etc. would be more attractive to residents without the mill. But would it be enough to keep a grocery store, a Wallie World, and other necessities?

I hope so. But someplace in the equation, you still need jobs. I don't see all the existing housing stock being grabbed up and the area being transformed into a bedroom community.

maybe rumford could become a new Shaker Village? (of course that would mean that everyone would have to be celibate), but just think of the tourist draw!

Dave wrote:Nobody is "battling" you Kevin, but you can take your ball and run home if you wish. I've got a degree in Economics, so you don't have to explain that subject matter to me. I'm a college instructor, also.

Dave, I am sorry for my abrupt tone in my last post. I just had a discussion that went bad and I was not in the mood to head down that road again. I am pleased to see a person posting who has the background to speak to the issue from a learned perspective.

What you are missing is that when one designs a contingency plan, it is because they can actually take actions dependent upon a known factor. Regardless of what happens, Rumford doesn't have a lot of actions to do, except to cut services should tax revenues decline.

Beyond that, it would be to beg to the state and federal government for a bailout.

Perhaps I'm not understanding what level of detail you are proposing. A simple analysis based upon industry multiplier effects would provide adaquate information.

I would be happy for the town government to acknowledge that the mill is not necessarily going to be there forever. What I am hoping for is a plan to modify town expenditures based upon the economic condition. I also think that a proper analysis could be fodder for developing a vision for the future based upon more than fairy tales and silver linings. Having a plan that addresses these things provides potential businesses with the security of knowing that the town government is on top of the issues and aware of their situation.

Let's be honest. If the mill says "bye-bye", the area is in for some rough times. Would there be any willing buyers for the mill if NewPage decides to go? I don't know. If not, should it be torn down, the contaminated earth be cleaned, and a new approach taken? I don't know. Will another wood products industry (like a pellet manufacturer) now want to locate in the area? I don't know.

So, What's wrong with planning out a potential route to recovery based upon a couple of scenarios? You don't wait until the dam breaks plan the evacuation of the village below.

My point, Kevin, is that it's too early for a plan. Too many scenarios are possible. And nothing is going to happen quickly, no matter what you have on a piece of paper.

But if you have done some footwork ahead of time, doesn't that put you ahead of the game? [/quote]

Phil - some decent points, but I don't agree about real estate. Losing the smell would be nice, but without jobs, what is going to cause the demand for them to increase? Perhaps in the long term, but I call long-term 10 years out or so.

Let's hope the fellows get back to work in early January and stay there so this discussion is moot.

And if they don't return to work then what? Will it still be too early?? Will it be too late? Will it be just the right time? This isn't the federal government, we use common sense. You don't wait for the horse to run away to close the gate. Such concepts are irresponsible.

xmashen wrote:maybe rumford could become a new Shaker Village? (of course that would mean that everyone would have to be celibate), but just think of the tourist draw!

Are you volunteering? Keep in mind you need to be able to do that groovy shaker dance....

Kevin - think about basic Algebra. The key to solving an algebraic problem is resolving variables.

There are too many variables in the situation now.

Much as I admire your Boy Scout ideals, it's too early to chart an alternative course without additional information.

Thanks for caring about the community. I truly do appreciate it. And I do try to live by the 6 P's. (proper planning prevents piss poor performance) But the scope of planning is still too broad, in my humble opinion.

Regards.